Yoweri Kaguta Museveni was yesterday
sworn in as president of Uganda for the sixth time in 30 years. EDRIS
KIGGUNDU looks at five issues that could define Mu- seveni’s leadership
between now and 2021.
AGE LIMIT/ SUCCESSION
One of the biggest political questions
facing the ruling party is not what will happen in the next five years;
it is what next thereafter. Will Museveni amend the Constitution and
remove the age-limit so he can stand in 2021 or will he return to
Rwakitura to be with his cows, as he is wont to say?
The Constitution stipulates that one
cannot vie for the presidency if they are 75 years and above. Museveni
will make 72 years in September this year meaning that by the end of
2019, he will be 75 years and ineligible to stand for president. But
Museveni once suggested that a constitution was a mere piece of paper,
and not many think he would simply respect the age- limit clause.
The discussion on whether to remove age
limit is likely to follow a similar path like the debate about removing
term limits in the early 2000s. At first President Museveni denied he
was behind the efforts then he started sounding ambiguous until he
conceded.
Yet to make this scheme work, analysts
believe, Museveni will have to rely on Parliament like he did in 2005.
Then, he used a mixture of persuasion and carrot (shs 5 million given to
each Movement MP) to sway parliament.
This time the financial re- wards to the
MPs could be higher. Dr Sabiiti Makara, an associate professor of
political science at Makerere University, said on Tuesday that
Parliament cannot be relied upon to stop Museveni because it is in his
pockets.
Makara said when Museveni led efforts to
remove term limits in 2005, he put one foot in the “league of
dictators”. If he pushes for removal of age limit, he will put another
foot and the cycle will be complete. Should Museveni decide otherwise,
another possibility to watch is whether there will be efforts to have
his son, Brig Muhoozi Kainerugaba, succeed him, like it is widely
believed.
The first step will be for Muhoozi to
retire from the army and if he does this in the next three years, it
will be an ominous sign. Don Wanyama, a spokesman in the office of the
NRM chairman, said it was still premature to “speculate” whether the age
limit will be lifted or how the succession will pan out.
HANDLING BESIGYE/ OPPOSITION
After an impressive showing at the 2016
elections, Dr Kizza Besigye is likely to remain the biggest thorn in
Museveni’s flesh. Already, his mobilization activities have been
curtailed by the state which feels safer when he is prevented from
leaving his home.
Yet whether Besigye can maintain this
pressure over the next five years will depend on how he will play his
political cards. The former FDC leader favours protests as a form of
expressing his discontent against government.
As for the wider opposition, eyes will
be on Amama Mbabazi, the former prime minister, to see what steps he
takes next after his dismal performance in the 2016 elections. There is
expectation that he could turn his pressure group, Go Forward into a
fully-fledged politi- cal party.
Prof Ogenga Latigo, the MP-elect for
Agago North, said Tuesday that the opposition has now matured and can
see through Museveni’s schemes.
“In the past people [in the opposition]
would see economic opportunities, employment opportunities and the
president would maneuver around there and divide the opposition. None of
these options is open now. So the only thing left is to be with
Museveni and his failures or to avoid being part of it. This is a strong
uniting factor for the opposition,” Latigo said.
Wanyama believes NRM is in a stronger
position now to deal with other political parties, given internal
divisions afflicting some of them.
“I don’t think they will have a lot of
time to bother President Museveni. The question of whether Amama Mbabazi
is still strong was buried in the last election,” Wanyama said.
Mbabazi had been seen by some as the best thing to happen to the opposition, but he managed barely 1.4 per cent of the vote.
POVERTY/UNEMPLOYMENT
Out of the 15.5 million registered
voters in Uganda, 60 per cent are youth aged between 18 and 35. Many of
these are not employed and are wallowing in poverty.
Over the next five years, appeasing
these people shall have to become one of Museveni’s biggest tasks if he
still has designs on the presidency in 2021. Museveni has already
indicated that, starting next financial year, government will set up
wealth funds to address poverty and youth unemployment. These are the
youth fund, women fund and innovative fund.
Latigo said the current economic
situation characterized by high income inequality, unemployment and food
scarcity is a recipe for disaster.
“There has been too much rhetoric and
yapping about GDP figures rather than ad- dressing the real economic
challenges which are em- powering people and enhancing their capacity.
Because this illusion took so long the consequences are beginning to
show.”
Latigo said the large youth population
also has expectations of living a better life and therefore they are not
just going to sit and watch as government does nothing to improve their
plight.
Along with economic challenges Museveni
will have to squarely confront corruption, which was part of the NRM’s
10-point-programme, but which now probably sits on top of the list of
NRM’s top 10 vices.
Museveni has always barked that he would move hard on the corrupt, but there is no evidence he has the teeth to bite.
OIL MONEY
Tamale Mirundi, a presidential advisor
on the media, has often said in various media appearances that as long
as the oil remains in the ground, Museveni will not go anywhere.
President Museveni said last week that
oil production will start in 2019 and give the country impetus to
undertake development projects without dictation from donors.
Experts, however, think otherwise. They
say it will take at least five years for government to construct a
refinery and three years for the pipeline to come on line. This means
that the most realistic year to begin oil production will be 2021, the
year Museveni is scheduled to step down.
DIPLOMACY
Uganda’s relationship with some of its
key donors is at its lowest following the controversial 2016 election
that many observers said did not pass the test of a free and fair
election.
At celebrations to mark the European
Union day on Monday, Kristian Schmidt, the head of the EU delegation to
Uganda, said while the country needed steady progress (NRM’s 2016
campaign slogan), it must not be blind to change in some areas.
“To preserve the legacy, to ensure peace
and stability in Uganda, to build the future, things have to change.
Even if you want steady progress, change is needed,” Schmidt said.
Makara believes that the tough tone from donors will soon subside because Museveni knows how to play to their game.
“He [Museveni] knows that donors need
his sup- port if they want to keep this region stable therefore they
cannot get rid of him. It will be a ping pong game.”
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