
Vendors sell their wares near an election poster of former Nigerian
military ruler Muhammadu Buhari before the start of the All Progressives
Congress (APC) party convention in Lagos in this December 10, 2014 file
photo. (Akintunde Akinleye/Reuters)
AFRICA’S MOST populous nation may be careening toward trouble. While
Nigeria has recently captured international headlines for its
battle against the murderous terrorist group Boko Haram, the most immediate threats to the country’s stability are not bullets from Islamist militants, but ballots.
In February, Nigeria, home to almost 200 million people, will hold what will essentially be the
first electoral contest between the country’s two major parties,
the incumbent People’s Democratic Party and the All Progressives
Congress. The PDP has won every election since Nigeria transitioned from
military to democratic rule in 1999, but the APC, formed last year from
a coalition of opposition parties, threatens its dominance. This is a
sea change in a political landscape already inflamed by north-south
tensions, an overly militarized political culture and pressure on the
economy due to falling oil prices. Add to the mix the Boko Haram threat
and the nation’s ill-prepared electoral commission, and the country has a
recipe for an explosive general-election season.