Nigeria Chaos Would Be Felt Across Africa By Timothy Kaberia

 

 

Former Chinese Communist Party leader Mao Zedong once said, "Politics is war without bloodshed, while war is politics with bloodshed." This is as close as it gets to describing the looming threat of Nigeria's collapse. Chinua Achebe would probably sum it up as "things fall apart -- again".
Nigeria, Africa's largest economy and most populous nation, hangs by a very loose thread. President Goodluck Jonathan is clutching at straws as the country quickly descends into anarchy. The postponement of the elections exposes the soft underbelly of Africa's sleeping giant. The ruling elite have lost so much clout that even the blind can see Boko Haram's sway within Nigeria. What is yet to be acknowledged is the devastating ripple effect that would echo across Africa if Nigeria were to sink deeper into chaos.


In his new book Dictators and Democracy in African Development: the Political Economy of Good Governance in Nigeria, Dr Carl Levan analyses events since 2007 and raises provocative questions about the future of the north-south cleavage at the core of Nigeria's federal existence. My former professor at American University links the political structure of the policy process to patterns of government performance over half a century. He argues that the key factor is not simply the status of the regime as a dictatorship or a democracy, but the structure of the policy-making process by which different policy demands are included or excluded. Maybe this explains why the Nigerian government 'veto players' have excluded resolute and implementable action against Boko Haram.
Recently, I hosted a group of Nigerian graduate students drawn from various parts of the country for a discussion on the coming elections. North-south considerations notwithstanding, the students expressed palpable fears for their country.

Southern Nigerian students argue that Jonathan's main challenger Mohammed Buhari is the force behind Boko Haram and should therefore be held responsible. On the other hand, the northern Nigerian students allege that Jonathan hopes Boko Haram will disrupt elections in northern states on election day. The assumption is that many northern voters will stay home for fear of Boko Haram and in the process hand Jonathan victory on a silver platter.
Both groups, however, agree that regardless of who wins there is a real danger of Nigeria disintegrating into a bloodbath and devastating civil war.

There is no doubt that a failed Nigeria would affect the more than 160 million people within its territory. It is also clear that if Nigeria falls, the ripple effect will be felt across the entire African continent. What is not clear though is the extent of the effect. Would the African Union under the chairmanship of a man who believes in preserving strongman politics really help defuse chaos in Nigeria? Does the AU have the wherewithal to save Nigeria from total collapse?

First, Nigeria's population is estimated at between 166 and 175 million. This translates into approximately 18 per cent of the total African population. It is surrounded by Benin, Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon, Niger and Chad. The combined population of these countries is approximately 62 million, which translates to just over one-third of the Nigerian population. In the event of a Nigerian crisis these little countries would be overwhelmed with millions of refugees, outnumbering their citizens. This, combined with Nigerians' naturally aggressive nature, would be a sure recipe for chaos that would destabilise the entire region.

A failed Nigeria would exert a lot of pressure on Ghana and Senegal, West Africa's only other stable countries with developed infrastructure. Even though Ghana and Senegal are fairly strong it would be wishful thinking to assume that they have the capacity to carry Nigeria's burden on their shoulders. If there is an outbreak of Ebola, God forbid, or some other disease in Nigeria the whole of West Africa will shut down.

Externally, Nigeria does legitimate and clandestine business with many African countries. Kenya is a case in point. Kenya Airways has nine weekly flights to Lagos and recently signed multi-million-dollar deals. The current trade imbalance between the two favours Kenya. This would all be lost if Nigeria falls. Further, Kenya has a history of suspected Nigerian drug dealers using JKIA as a transit point. With relaxed visa requirements for Nigerian 'investors', Kenya is staring at an influx of suspected drug dealers posing as businessmen. It is therefore in Kenya's best interest to ensure Nigeria does not fall.

Nigeria has soldiers serving in both Ecowas and Amisom. In West Africa, Nigeria has intervened in every single one of the many conflicts there. Ironically, Nigeria's small neighbours are the ones shelling and taming Boko Haram.
Africa must choose between saving Nigeria and dealing with the devastating effects of its collapse.

Kaberia is the assistant director of international programs at the University of the District of Columbia.